lunatics, haters, punk trash
98th OSCARS winners and losers // 2026 movie bracket: MOVIES ABOUT STEALING
My goal with this newsletter is to write about new films as they reach general release, along with seasonally appropriate commentary on other cinematic events and interests. This week we’ve got winners and losers from the 98th Academy Awards, plus an exciting announcement about the 2026 MOVIE BRACKET. This newsletter comes out every Friday, which this week means Sunday.
2025 is officially over. I watched the Oscars for the first time in fifteen years to commemorate this momentous year in film. I used to watch award shows religiously but stopped in college for political reasons or something. Maybe I’ve been away for too long but but wow, this was hard to watch. Really awkward and unfunny and frankly rude stuff. Thankfully there was a cute baby and a funny dog at my party and I was locked in a quietly hostile ballot competition with the host, so the night zoomed by.
Production aside, there was a lot to be happy about - it’s cool for a massive industry to take over broadcast television for four hours to honor good art and the people who make it. This was by all means a triumphant Oscars for some nice people who make things I like. But also a lot of it sucked. Here’s my Real Analysis of the 98th Academy Awards.
LOSERS: THE BEAUTIFUL CELEBRITIES
Where were the stars? I didn’t see any of them, but also I realized on Sunday that I don’t know what any of these people look like. Recognizing people out of context is hard. I once had a somewhat involved conversation with Ewan McGregor about a play he was starring in and had no idea who I was talking to until someone cued me in an hour later. I clocked him immediately on Sunday because he was standing next to Nicole Kidman and singing songs from Moulin Rouge, but otherwise I struggled to identify any famous men on stage. I don’t think it’s my fault. First, the copy they were reading was so charmless that it could have rendered even the most charismatic people in history into black holes. Second, they were all wearing glasses. How are you supposed recognize someone when they’re wearing glasses? There’s an entire comic book mega-franchise about this. Timothée Chalamet and Jacob Elordi didn’t wear glasses, but they did have nearly identical mustaches, which is another great way to throw me off your scent. Thankfully Timmy had a white suit and a Kardashian next to him, so I rarely got lost when he came on screen, which was not very often, because he didn’t win anything.
I guess I don’t respect actors. March is Robert Bresson month - mobile eyes on mobile heads on mobile bodies and nothing else. But I don’t think I’m being crazy when I say that the weight of these Oscars swung significantly toward the behind-the-camera awards. Michael B. Jordan was a big win, but otherwise the star-power felt Sunshine-esque. Chock that to a predetermined Best Actress race led by a not-quite-household name, a deserved but nerdy Supporting Actress, and an absentee Supporting Actor. But also, where was Leo? He’s the Last True Movie Star starring in the Best Picture frontrunner, and I barely saw him move his mouth. Maybe he was wearing glasses too.
WINNERS: FILM BROS
Is it giving too much credit to the internet to call this the Letterboxd Oscars? For my money the defining moment of the night was Ryan Coogler running Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s son down the aisle to celebrate his mom’s win for best cinematography. A highlight reel featuring two people who have spent most of the past year talking about film stock can only happen when an art form is shifting away from populist excess and into the “bros saying names of other bros and then explaining what their job is to you” phase. If one of the most talked about events of your night is an upset in the cinematography race then you know that the age of the Oscars selfie is over.
Overall, the Sinners technical love and the big wins for PTA left me feeling hopeful about the future of film. One of the narratives going into this Oscars was that it was Hollywood’s last hurrah before the apocalypse of the Paramount/Warner merger - two expensive studio projects made on expensive film anchored by expensive stars, duking it out one last time before Hollywood consigns itself to the IP slop factory. OK, it’s fine to feel bad about monopolies. But do you seriously believe that Autumn Arkapaw’s career is effectively over? Do you really think Ryan Coogler is never going to make a movie ever again? I’ve said it before, but the amount of talent in Hollywood is out the ears right now. The collapse of the studio system - if that’s even actually happening - is not going to obliterate this art form. If Jafar Panahi can make a perfect movie while being on the run from the Iranian state then I really think PTA will be able figure out how to do it without a quarter billion dollars from a cable company.
Whatever the future holds, this was a night for the nerds who love the art of making movies big adventure. I love to see an auditorium of beautiful people standing up to applaud a bunch of uncharismatic dorks. Ryan Coogler is an uncharismatic dork. PTA is an uncharismatic dork. Even Kim Eun-jae from KPop Demon Hunters is kind of an uncharismatic dork. Joachim Trier, Ludwig Göransson, the F1 sound lady who cussed - none of these people belong on live television, and they’re all making the world a better place by being there. Film is a community art form and if there’s anything worthwhile about this stupid event it’s that everyone watching is forced to remember that.
LOSER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET (for at least fifteen years)
Up until last weekend I thought “Club Chalamet” was the collective term for the fans of Timothée Chalomet and that they were referred to using collective singular “she/her” pronouns. Florine informed me that Club Chalamet is actually the name of a middle-aged woman who uses singular she/her pronouns because she is a singular woman. Whatever. Club Chalamet is in crisis. Timmy looked like shit on Sunday. He must have known when he got fitted for that suit that he was out - if he had any chance of winning he’d be wearing a classic black tuxedo, ready to take on the weight of the Academy. Dumping his Miyako Bellizzi styling for Diddy lapels and a Liam Gallagher haircut signals that he’s out of the race and into the backstreets.
I think this is fine. If he knows what’s good for him he’s going to start mouthing off a bit more, shunning the traditional circuits, and trying to shape himself in the Johnny Depp mold while doing his best to avoid a James Franco burnout. Great. Free him up from these savior-of-cinema expectations (Michael B. Jordan is more than ready for that role) and let him be an annoying turd he was born to be. The opera thing was an OK start, but you can do better. Robert Pattinson the Dune 3 press tour. Refuse to work with anyone other than problematic men. Find a few more esoteric art forms to insult. Pick up a confusing and slightly alarming hobby. In ten or fifteen years you can come back and make your imperial return-to-form picture. There’s an Oscar waiting for you on the other side of the wilderness. But for now, you need to learn the art of not-trying-to-make-people-like-you.
WINNER: SEAN PENN
For example, you could learn something from Sean Penn, who pulled off some top-tier calculated disrespect this award season. I watch high school kids do this year in and year out. 1. Say that you aren’t going to show up because you don’t care anymore. 2. Show up at a highly visible event and do something disrespectful and maybe illegal in front of all your teachers. 3. Now that everyone is paying attention to you again, subtly intimate that you secretly need to be loved. 4. Revert to absenteeism right when it counts and reject the nice thing that everyone made for you. It works literally every time. Spicoli knows the playbook. I hate this guy, everyone hates this guy, and look what he just pulled off. Timmy, do you smoke cigarettes? Consider starting. This is how you win an Oscar.
SORT OF A WASH: ME
I made some last minute changes to my ballot on Sunday morning which brought me to 17 out of 24. I got the top score at my party, but after my 100% perfect ballot in 2004 I won’t count anything less than 20 as a win. Per what I posted last week, I got 10 out of 18 (I excluded documentary, animated, shorts, and somehow forgot about editing). I DID say that it would go 6-4 OBAA-Sinners, so I will claim that as a victory even if I didn’t get the categories right. Overall though, I need to do better. As we will say in Minnesota until probably the end of time - next year.
Thank God that’s done. I’m moving on to real-deal 2026 movies next week, but in the meantime I am excited to announce the theme for the 2026 MOVIE BRACKET: MOVIES ABOUT STEALING.
I’m starting things off with four high-seed films in the four categories of theft that I learned in my sixth-grade Government and Law class:
ROBBERY - guns, bombs, getaway drivers, Ronald Reagan masks
Heat
Dog Day Afternoon
Inside Man
Point Break
BURGLARY - break-ins, safecrackers, balaclavas, tunnels
Ocean’s Eleven
Le Cercle Rouge
Rififi
The Perfect Score
PETTY LARCENY - pickpockets, shoplifters, purse snatchers, teens
Pickpocket
The Bling Ring
Shoplifters
The Mastermind
FRAUD - con artists, card sharks, fake accents, scams
Catch Me If You Can
Handmaiden
Double Indemnity
Paper Moon
I’ll put out a full 64-film bracket sometime this spring. What I need right now is your feedback. What are the essential theft movie that needs to be in this bracket? I’m not interested in movies that primarily center on the people catching the thieves (i.e. no cop movies). I’m also not interested in movies about the life of crime in general (i.e., no mob movies). I’m looking for movies that explore the interaction between material limitations and antisocial transcendence - the plunge into reality and the escapism of watching someone rise above it. Share your favorites in the comments, shoot me an email, or bug me on Letterboxd. More to come, but I think this one will be fun.
Thanks for reading *life is disappointing.* If you found this newsletter slightly less disappointing than the rest of your life, consider liking, commenting, sending me money (thanks!) or subscribing. Subscribing will get you exactly what you get here but sent to your email inbox. We’ll be back next week with a review of Project Hail Mary.
For petty larceny: shoplifters by Kore-eda
Drugstore cowboy and Oliver Twist for petty larceny!